NBP Holds Rates at 3.75% in October 2026: What It Means for Expats
Short answer: NBP's Monetary Policy Council held all rates on 6-7 October 2026, keeping the reference rate at 3.75% as it has been since March. Mortgage instalments stay stable and the next signal comes at the November meeting.
Poland's central bank kept its main interest rate at 3.75% at its October meeting, continuing a pause that has lasted since the spring. For expats the headline number matters twice over: it sets the tone for mortgage instalments in zloty and for what banks pay on savings. Here is what the October decision says and what it means in practice, as of 14 October 2026.
The October decision: all rates unchanged
At its 6-7 October 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC), the rate-setting body of Narodowy Bank Polski, left every NBP rate unchanged:
- Reference rate: 3.75%
- Lombard rate: 4.25%
- Deposit rate: 3.25%
- Rediscount rate: 3.80%
- Discount rate on bills of exchange: 3.85%
The reference rate has now been at 3.75% since a 25 basis point cut in March 2026. Both the hold and the level matched what economists surveyed before the meeting expected.
Why the Council is waiting
The MPC's post-meeting statement pointed to the September inflation reading: according to the Statistics Poland flash estimate, CPI inflation rose to 4.0% year on year in September 2026, up from 3.4% in August. The Council attributed the increase mainly to higher annual growth in fuel prices for personal transport, and estimated that inflation net of food and energy prices actually declined slightly.
That distinction is the whole story. NBP's inflation target is 2.5% with a tolerance band of 1.5% to 3.5%, so September's 4.0% sits above the band. But because the overshoot is driven by fuel rather than broad-based price pressure, and core inflation is easing, the Council chose patience. Analysts at ING read the October statement as mildly dovish and expect policymakers to stay on hold for several more months.
What it means for a mortgage in zloty
Almost all variable-rate mortgages in Poland are priced off WIBOR, the interbank reference rate, which tracks NBP rates with a lag. With the reference rate steady since March, WIBOR-based instalments have been broadly stable too. A hold in October means no immediate change to a typical floating-rate instalment; any future cut would feed through only at your loan's next WIBOR reset, usually every three or six months depending on the contract. If you are weighing a fixed-rate offer against a variable one, the Council's wait-and-see stance is the key context: markets currently price a slow, cautious easing path rather than quick cuts.
What it means for savings
The deposit rate of 3.25% is the floor banks earn at NBP, and retail savings and term deposit offers move with the policy rate over time. With rates on hold, the era of rapidly improving deposit offers is also paused, though competition between banks means promotional rates often sit well above the policy floor. With inflation at 4.0%, an ordinary savings account paying below that level still loses purchasing power, so comparing offers matters more than waiting for the central bank.
What happens next
The MPC's November meeting is the one to watch: it is when the Council receives NBP's fresh inflation and GDP projection, the input that typically drives the next round of decisions. Governor Adam Glapiński framed October as a data-dependent pause. If fuel-driven inflation proves temporary and core inflation keeps easing, a cut later in the autumn is possible; if the September reading marks the start of broader pressure, the pause extends.
Frequently asked questions
### Does an NBP decision change my mortgage instalment immediately?
No. Variable-rate loans reprice at their WIBOR reset dates, usually every three or six months, and WIBOR itself moves ahead of, not after, MPC meetings as markets anticipate decisions. A hold means your instalment stays roughly where it is.
Is 3.75% high or low for Poland?
It is the lowest level since the post-pandemic tightening cycle peaked at 6.75% in 2022-2023. The March 2026 cut brought it to 3.75%, where it has stayed through October.
Where can I check the official NBP rates?
On the central bank's website at nbp.pl, under monetary policy and interest rates, updated after each MPC decision. The Council meets roughly every month, with dates published in advance.
When might rates fall again?
Nobody knows for certain, and the Council decides meeting by meeting. The next strong signal is the November meeting, when NBP's new macroeconomic projection lands; economists currently see the Bank staying patient as long as fuel keeps driving the headline inflation number.
